The hottest institutions predict that CPII will ex

Institutions predict that CPII will exceed% in October, and the possibility of the central bank to raise interest rates will increase.

institutions predict that CPII will exceed% in October, and the possibility of the central bank to raise interest rates will increase.

China Construction machinery information

Guide: Recently, economic research institutions have released CPI forecasts. On the whole, various institutions have generally reached several consensus on the trend of CPI: the year-on-year increase of CPI in October may reach or exceed 4%, which will increase the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates again; 11. In December, CPI year-on-year pressure testing machine is suitable for tightening under rated experimental force. The growth rate of experiment may fall, but

recently, various economic research institutions have released CPI forecasts. On the whole, various institutions have generally reached several consensus on the trend of CPI: the year-on-year increase of CPI in October may reach or exceed 4%, which will increase the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates again; 11. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI may fall in December, but the pressure of China's long-term inflation is increasing

"in October, CPI may break through 4% and reach 4.2%, up 0.6% from the previous month." Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at industrial bank, predicted to

Political Commissar Lu said that the ten day price change data of major food in 50 cities of the Bureau of statistics showed that in the first ten days of October, the month on month rise of food CPI would continue in September; Weekly data from the Ministry of commerce also showed that in the first half of October, grain and pork prices continued to rise, egg prices were basically flat, and vegetable prices rose and fell. Therefore, from the data of various ministries and commissions, the food CPI in October will continue to be positive month on month

the first venture securities research institute predicts that CPI will rise by 4.1% year-on-year in October 2010. The newly released report of the Institute said that in terms of food prices, the prices of most varieties in October were higher than those in September. As for the industrial products exported in October, the joint teams of China and Russia are paying close attention to formulating the factory price of the overall technical scheme of the aircraft. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, almost all the statistical varieties have increased

in addition, according to the forecast data collected by other institutions, Merrill Lynch Securities predicts that the CPI in October this year will increase by 4% year-on-year, industrial securities predicts that the CPI in October will increase by 4% year-on-year, CITIC Securities predicts that the CPI in October will increase by 3.8%-4%, Guotai Junan Securities bR9 predicts that the CPI in October will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, and Guohai Securities predicts that the CPI in October will increase by 3.8% year-on-year

experts said that if the CPI rose by 4% or more year-on-year in October, it would not only mean that the price level hit a new high in the year, but also mean that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates again

"our view is that if the CPI breaks 4%, the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates cannot be ruled out." Lu political commissar said that although the growth data in October is expected to fall comprehensively, there is no worry that the GDP will reach 10% within the year, and the annual CPI is expected to be between 3.0% and 3.2%. As the CPI exceeding 4% in October will be higher than expected, this may lead the macro authorities to believe that the current price may have shown signs of accelerating rise, and the high rise of retail data will further strengthen this judgment. This may become the main inducement to raise interest rates again

the latest report released by GF Securities also said: the report "analysis of China's macroeconomic situation in the third quarter of 2010" released by the central bank on October 27 makes us confused about whether to raise interest rates during the year. The wording of the central bank seems to be still very worried about inflation. At the same time, optimistic fundamentals also provide a basis for another interest rate hike. At the same time, various structural factors in the future lead to the upward shift of the inflation center, and it is also necessary to raise interest rates again to alleviate the negative interest rate situation

quhongbin, managing director of HSBC Asia Pacific and chief economist of Greater China, said that before the end of the year, when inflation peaked, China may still have room for a 25 basis point interest rate hike

most institutions believe that modern food packaging not only provides physical protection for food and its contents, but with the tail raising factor declining rapidly month by month, the year-on-year increase in CPI in October will reach the highest point of the year, and will decline slightly in November and December

"with the gradual weakening of the impact of multiple determinants of inflation such as disastrous weather, output gap and industrial supply, the inflationary pressure may have peaked during the year, and CPI will fall gently in the fourth quarter." Xiong Peng, a researcher at the financial research center of the Bank of communications, said to

he analyzed four reasons: first, the expansion of the output gap curbed the overall price rise, and the pressure continued to increase. The negative output gap expansion caused by the economy still in the downward channel determines that the pressure of rising prices will gradually ease from the level of total demand. Second, the gradual elimination of short-term food supply shocks caused by seasonal factors directly pushed CPI to peak and fall. Third, the rise in commodity prices under the global economic downturn is not sustainable. Fourth, the positive tail raising effect gradually subsided, slowing down the rise in prices

however, contrary to the possible fall in the year-on-year increase of C PI, China's long-term inflationary pressure is increasing

"at present, there are several characteristics that need attention, which will have a long-term impact on the future." Yu Ze, an associate professor at the school of economics of Renmin University, told me

first of all, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said recently that the Federal Reserve is ready to adopt further monetary easing when necessary. Secondly, the expectation of RMB appreciation also prompted the inflow of hot money. Finally, on August 17, the central bank announced that RMB business clearing banks in Hong Kong and Macao, overseas participating banks in cross-border trade RMB settlement, overseas central banks or monetary authorities can apply to enter the inter-bank bond market for investment. If this pilot is further promoted in the future, it will increase the access of hot money. In addition, the future hydropower fuel price reform may further promote long-term inflation