The most popular policies and fundamentals are wor

2022-08-03
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The policy and fundamentals are working together. The nonferrous metal market is booming.

by the end of 2018, seven types of waste copper will be banned from import. This news triggered the market in the trading on the 26th, adding to the bright performance of industrial metal prices represented by copper in recent trading days: the price of Lun copper once soared to a two-year high, and Shanghai copper also climbed to a high of more than five months

however, insiders said that the market profit taking psychology was strengthened, the copper price may be slightly corrected, and metals such as zinc and nickel may take over the baton of the rise

the ban on the import of seven types of waste copper pushed up the price of copper

according to the notice quoted by the renewable metals branch under the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China will ban the import at the end of 2018, which requires plastic packaging material enterprises to further improve and upgrade the waste hardware in the following aspects, including waste wires, waste motors and bulk waste hardware, namely the so-called seven types of waste. It is generally understood that seven categories need to be processed and disassembled to flow to the consumer end, and six categories can flow directly to the consumer end

boosted by this, LME copper price once hit the highest level of US $6400 since may2015 on the 26th, and Shanghai copper also climbed to the highest level in more than five months. On the same day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 50050 yuan per ton, up 3.75%

some peripheral news is also boosting the rise in copper prices. Important copper mines in Chile and Peru face the risk of labor disputes. However, due to the differences between labor and capital in terms of layoffs and employment terms, about 5000 workers of the large-scale copper mine of Grasberg operated by the Indonesian branch of Freeport extended the strike to the fourth month. However, the investment amount on the 26th was in the range of millions of euros. It was reported that the two sides had reached an agreement

while copper prices took off, other metals also performed well. In the trading on the 26th, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 23265 yuan per ton, up 0.71%. Shanghai nickel and Shanghai lead main contracts closed up 1.09% and 2.37% respectively, and Shanghai aluminum closed flat. At 17:42 Beijing time, LME's three-month copper and aluminum rose 1.2% and 0.65% respectively

liuxintian, editor in chief of the business club, pointed out that the commodities of the first echelon in June, such as iron ore and hot rolled coil, have risen strongly, so the recent rise has slowed down. The second echelon has been successfully relayed, and it is expected that the market will soon usher in the rise of the third echelon. The third echelon of commodities is led by crude oil, copper and nickel

according to the analysis of Wang Jiaxing of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals information, China's economic data in the second quarter was good, the external environment of enterprises was continuously optimized and improved, and the stable economic environment provided strong support for the rise of metal prices. Secondly, the metal market also benefited from the weakness of the US dollar. With the rising trend of the "hawks" of the major central banks becoming more and more obvious, the United States appears somewhat passive. It is worth noting that the US economy seems to regain momentum in the third quarter, and the US dollar may also be boosted

zinc and nickel may take over the baton of rising trend in the future.

although the news that the import of seven types of waste copper is prohibited boosted the copper price, the industry tends to be cautious about the future market of non-ferrous metals. Yejianhua, a senior analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous copper, told the Shanghai Securities News that the cancellation of the import of seven types of materials had a far greater emotional impact than the actual impact, including the rise of copper prices, which only contributed to the flames. At present, it is known that the implementation time of the policy is the end of next year. There is still a year and a half to go. Whether these prohibited seven types of materials will be converted into six types of materials and transported to China, and its conversion rate is worthy of attention. In recent years, the volume of seven types of materials transferred to the Southeast Asian market and then exported to China has increased. Even if it is not transported to China, it will become a part of overseas raw material supply

according to statistics, the total amount of scrap copper imported by China in 2016 was about 1.2 million tons, and it is expected to be 1.27 million tons in 2017, of which seven types of materials accounted for 60-70%

the metal industry analyst of Zhuo Chuang information pointed out that Shanghai copper continued to pull up wantonly. However, in the spot market, the number of quotation inquirers decreased significantly. Although the market is dominated by a bullish attitude, the downstream purchasing enterprises still wait and see for the support layer of the 50000 yuan front-line base material, and the transaction is very light. Zhuochuang predicts that after the continuous sharp rise, the market profit taking psychology will strengthen, and the copper price may fall slightly

in addition, liuxiaolei, a senior analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous aluminum industry, said that the short-term rise in aluminum prices was mainly supported by the supply side reform of electrolytic aluminum and the expected reduction of production in the heating season, and was driven by surrounding metals, pushing up aluminum prices. The market will return to fundamentals after the news hype is too wasted. At present, the aluminum price has been at the top of the shock range. Although trying to seek a breakthrough, the aluminum factory has increased its willingness to maintain its value under the high profit margin, which will suppress the increase of the aluminum price. After returning to the fundamentals, the aluminum price still has the risk of callback

however, the future performance of zinc and nickel is optimistic. Yang Bo, a senior analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous nickel, said that from July to August, the profit of stainless steel was good and the output remained high; Nickel demand is good, but the price is still bullish. Liubing, a zinc analyst, said that the supply gap of zinc would not be easily filled, the demand showed no sign of weakening, and there was no big bad news on the fundamentals. Therefore, the zinc price would fluctuate at the current high level

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