Analysis of the hottest domestic acetone market

Analysis of domestic acetone market

in recent years, China's acetone market demand is not booming. Although there has been a short rebound, it is generally in a state of supply exceeding demand

, and the price also fluctuates, and the range is large. In 2000, the market was stable and the price fell slightly. At present, the price is

5200 ~ 5500 yuan/t. It is expected that the output and demand of acetone will increase synchronously in 2001. Although there is a gap, there will be a lot of imports. The production and demand can be basically balanced, and the market will be dominated by stability. The main reasons are:

first, the production of acetone in China has increased significantly in the past two years

China mainly adopts fermentation method and cumene oxidation method. At present, there are more than 50 manufacturers with an annual production capacity of more than 150000

t, of which more than 60% are produced by cumene method. There is still a large market space for the development of the extruder industry of major manufacturers, including Yanshan Petrochemical, Jihua Group, Harbin

Huayu, Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical, Shanghai solvent plant, North China Pharmaceutical General Plant, Xi'an Huian chemical plant, Beijing brewery, Guangyuan solvent plant, etc

before acetone production in China, fermentation was the main method, using grain as raw materials. After fermentation, acetone and butanol

mixture can be obtained. With the increasing demand for acetone and butanol, the production of acetone by fermentation has also developed to a certain extent. However, after the Seventh Five Year Plan, Yanshan Petrochemical built a 30000 T/a cumene acetone production unit, and then successively built cumene production units in Harbin, Jilin and Gaoqiao. Cumene production has the advantages of large scale and low cost, and is in a favorable position in the market competition. The production capacity of domestic fermentation method is more than 40000 t, and the general annual output is only about 20000 T.

the output was the highest in 1987, reaching 29900 T, accounting for 54.6% of the total domestic acetone output in that year. After that, the output of cumene method

increased, and the output of acetone by fermentation method decreased. By 1990, it was only 16500 T, and the output of acetone by cumene method increased to 36400 t

in recent years, acetone sales have been sluggish and the price is low. Coupled with the impact of imports, many fermentation production enterprises have stopped production or switched to

production. At the same time, the state has restricted the construction of new fermentation acetone production plants. However, due to the special needs of the pharmaceutical and food industries,

fermentation will still occupy a certain market share

in 1998, the domestic acetone output was 111400 T. in 1999, the sample fracture was often broken on both sides, and the annual output was 114100 T. in 2000, the output was estimated to be about 12

10000 t. The improvement of domestic self-sufficiency rate has promoted the stability of acetone market. It is estimated that the acetone output in 2001 is about 120000

~ 130000 tons, and the social demand is about 150000 ~ 160000 tons, with a gap of about 30000 ~ 40000 tons

second, the demand for acetone will grow steadily

in recent years, the effective demand in China's market is insufficient, and most products have poor sales. The demand for acetone is also weak due to the sales impact of downstream products. In terms of consumption composition, methyl methacrylate accounts for about 30% of the total consumption of acetone, medicine

accounts for 13%, bisphenol A accounts for 11%, paint accounts for 8%, antioxidant accounts for 5%, and others account for 33%. The chemical industry is the largest user of acetone, accounting for about 70% of the total consumption of acetone. Methyl methacrylate is a monomer of plexiglass, and it can also be used to make other resins, plastics, coatings, adhesives, etc. In recent years, acrylonitrile production in China has developed rapidly. A number of new units have been completed and put into operation. Some of the by-product hydrocyanic acid is used to produce methyl methacrylate, so the consumption of acetone will increase. Bisphenol A is the raw material of epoxy resin and polycarbonate. Domestic production is insufficient and needs to be imported. In order to get a foothold in the country, there has been the construction of new devices recently, so the output will increase, which also increases the demand for acetone. Other products that are checked with acetone third, the strain system, such as plastics, antioxidants, paints, coatings, pesticides, will not have a large demand for acetone.

the pharmaceutical industry is also an industry that consumes more acetone, and it is used to produce more than 100 products such as antibiotics, hormones, vitamins, sulfa

. A few years ago, the export situation of vitamin C was good, and the benefits were good. China's vitamin C production technology was at the world advanced level. A batch of production plants were blindly launched all over the country, and the demand for acetone increased greatly. Later, due to technology leakage, the export of

decreased, and the price fell. Many enterprises stopped production or switched production, and the consumption of acetone also fell sharply. Other drug markets also

are mostly buyer's markets, with fierce competition. With the development of medical system reform, some drugs with low price and good therapeutic effect make the products spread all over the country and sold all over the world. The consumption of acetone may increase

III. the oil price in the international market is unstable, and the market price of acetone will fluctuate.

at present, cumene acetone production occupies the leading position in acetone production both abroad and at home. The main raw materials come from oil refining and processing, so the oil price has a great impact on the production cost. Recently, the oil price fluctuation in the international

market has been rising in the early stage, then declining, and recently rising. Therefore, the acetone price will also fluctuate with the change of oil

price this year. It may rise steadily in the later stage, and it is estimated that the range will not be too large

IV. import has a great impact on the domestic market

for a long time, China's acetone production is insufficient, and different quantities of acetone are imported every year. In years with more imports, such as 1996

, market demand slowed down, prices fell, and sales were poor. In years with low imports, such as 1997, resources are tight, prices rise, and supply exceeds demand. Therefore, imports have a greater impact on the domestic market. In the past two years, China's acetone production has increased significantly, but imports have also shown an increasing momentum, resulting in a relative surplus of resources, market supply exceeds demand, and prices naturally fall

49100 tons were imported in 1997, 67100 tons in 1998, 73700 tons in 1999, and 89600 tons from January to November 2000. It is expected that more acetone will be imported this year, which can completely fill the demand gap. (Wang Zhen